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Augur is a prediction market platform that rewards you for correctly predicting future real-world events.
You make your predictions by trading virtual shares in the outcome of events happening in the real-world. If you think Hillary Clinton will be elected President, the Yankees will win the World Series, or Leonardo DiCaprio will win another Oscar, then you'll buy shares in those outcomes. If you buy shares in the correct outcomes, you'll win real money profits.
The prices of the shares you trade in any event adds up to one dollar - so if you buy a share at even odds it will cost you 50 cents. If you end up being right, you'll get back one dollar for every share you bought. If you're wrong then you've lost the money used to buy your shares. As with any market, the price of shares fluctuates over time. As more people buy shares in an outcome, the price of that outcome will rise while the price of other outcomes will fall. This gives you further opportunities for profit - by buying low and selling high, before the final result of the market is known.
Augur's prediction markets provide powerful predictive data - you can think of the current market price of any share in any market as an estimate of the probability of that outcome actually occurring in the real world. For example, a share priced at 64 cents has a 64% probability of happening.
The accuracy of prediction markets rests in the idea of the "The Wisdom of the Crowd". This states that the average prediction made by a group is superior to that made by any of the individuals in that group. Markets are the perfect way to aggregate this collective wisdom - which is made up of all the information, analysis and opinion held by members of the group. With these individuals buying and selling shares in the outcome of real-world events, based on their personal knowledge and opinion, the market prices reach an equilibrium that reflect the opinion of the entire group.
Prediction markets have proven to be more accurate at forecasting the future than individual experts, surveys or traditional opinion polling. They provide real-time predictive data and are traded using real money - which incentivises market participants to reveal what they think will happen, rather than what they hope will happen. Traders are putting their money where their mouths are.
Existing on a decentralized network gives Augur a unique edge over other prediction markets.
Augur is a decentralized platform built on the Ethereum blockchain - which means no central servers that can be switched off.
Using Augur, anyone, anywhere in the world can quickly and easily create a prediction market asking a question about anything. As a market creator you'll provide some initial funding for the market and in return receive half of all trading fees collected during the lifetime of that market.
Augur's fees are set by users, and are vastly lower compared to traditional trading and betting platforms.
In centralized markets, one person determines the final market outcomes - which means there can be mistakes or outright manipulation. With Augur, we'll have thousands reporting on market outcomes using a one-of-a kind consensus based system and a unique token called REPutation.
All funds are stored in smart contracts - eliminating counterparty risk and allowing fast, automated payments to winning traders. Depositing and withdrawing funds are also completely automated using the blockchain. With no human intervention required, there's no human error.
After months of development we are pleased to release the beta version of Augur. This early version showcases the core features of our prediction market platform. We're still actively developing the software and working on design, but we'd love to hear your honest and unfiltered feedback about our work so far.
No cost and no deposit required - it's all just play money during beta testing.