Note: The cutoff has been updated. See here
The target for Augur v2 launch is now early January, 2020. The main bottleneck at this point is integration and UI work. A secondary potential bottleneck is Multi-collateral Dai being ready and sufficiently vetted.
Earlier this year, the Forecast Foundation announced a v1 cutoff of September 15th, meaning that any markets that enter reporting after that date would no longer be guaranteed to resolve prior to Augur v2 launch. This is important, since once Augur v2 is launched, unresolved markets in Augur v1 will no longer have a strong security guarantee of finalizing to the correct outcome. The idea behind the cutoff is to provide an ample cushion of time to let Augur v1 markets resolve before launching Augur v2.
With the current target timeline, if there were no adjustments to the cutoff, there could be months of effective downtime where users would have no access to markets that they could safely trade in. One option would be to extend the cutoff further out, but that would still leave the risk of significant downtime and the risk of delaying Augur v2 launch due to slow-resolving pre-cutoff markets in Augur v1.
The following, updated plan is a way to significantly reduce downtime and to diminish the risk of further Augur v2 delay risk.
In the updated plan, the September 15th cutoff is maintained but revised as follows: After September 15th, anyone can still create markets, but only Guesser-created markets are guaranteed to resolve before Augur v2 is launched. Users can still trade these markets via Guesser or Augur Native and can also propose market ideas to Guesser.
When Augur v2 is within a month or so of being launch-ready, Guesser will be notified, and at that point any markets entering reporting more than 2 weeks out will no longer be guaranteed to resolve pre-v2.
This approach significantly reduces the risk of drawn-out disputes due to 1) Guesser, as Designated Reporter, being able to pre-contribute an additional REP stake to its reported outcomes to accelerate resolution and make it expensive to dispute and 2) a lesser likelihood of ambiguous outcomes prone to dispute due to vetted market terms.
Guesser has a track record of creating markets with strong terms that resolve smoothly. In the last 5 months, Guesser has created around 100 markets with only one that was disputed, due to the cited resolution website being down. And even in a case like that, a DR pre-contribution could accelerate market resolution.
In the revised plan, it is expected there could be safely traded in markets up until around 2 weeks before Augur v2 is ready, reducing both downtime and potential Augur v2 delay.
The Foundation believes this is the best option at this point. Due to faster reporting and disputing in Augur v2 and other changes, the expectation is that future version transitions will be way smoother.
While the Foundation doesn't expect any further adjustments will be needed, continued communication with the community will take place via social channels and the Augur Discord in regards to any further updates and details.Start Trading on Augur